Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-13 36.821694 41.771160 47.645686 55.284203 65.198401 78.015223 96.562116
2025-04-20 30.035440 36.003768 43.833257 55.369467 73.005466 101.316158 157.375866
2025-04-27 26.067841 32.474115 41.511404 56.206868 82.153181 134.186765 290.710831
2025-05-04 23.374261 29.968086 39.804835 57.149887 92.037000 180.649002 687.993220
2025-05-11 21.255548 27.839141 38.086455 57.365382 100.804550 241.514794 3155.723005
2025-05-18 19.419022 25.819944 36.091683 56.377772 106.456845 310.786193 NaN
2025-05-25 18.143706 24.477100 34.948358 56.670363 115.861636 442.063867 NaN
2025-06-01 16.981607 23.162856 33.619449 56.172455 122.972602 627.642228 NaN
2025-06-08 15.959299 21.961274 32.304745 55.347135 128.775653 916.315395 NaN
2025-06-15 15.088625 20.923897 31.146013 54.591847 134.667051 1467.119253 NaN
2025-06-22 14.374409 20.083674 30.246984 54.249035 142.429164 3055.595064 NaN
2025-06-29 13.623389 19.119951 28.999617 52.752514 144.174898 6325.395518 NaN
2025-07-06 13.426548 19.104725 29.620872 56.382553 177.138479 NaN NaN
2025-07-13 12.845379 18.369160 28.712129 55.602598 185.065955 NaN NaN
2025-07-20 12.423748 17.886933 28.270879 56.084319 203.404968 NaN NaN
2025-07-27 12.062211 17.485665 27.952626 56.871286 227.293966 NaN NaN
2025-08-03 11.684299 17.028019 27.464840 57.021698 247.843893 NaN NaN
2025-08-10 11.257777 16.454885 26.673139 56.018420 256.057364 NaN NaN
2025-08-17 10.949720 16.083088 26.288573 56.297309 281.658374 NaN NaN
2025-08-24 10.615126 15.642606 25.712189 55.800497 298.115034 NaN NaN
2025-08-31 10.284533 15.192715 25.078718 54.982452 309.617336 NaN NaN
2025-09-07 9.980345 14.778126 24.494098 54.234675 322.139962 NaN NaN
2025-09-14 9.719509 14.433474 24.043261 53.895285 343.190274 NaN NaN